Chart Update on How Aston Villa are Tracking in Terms of Surviving Relegation

The Strikerless Improvement

After Aston Villa recently took a vital four points against their direct relegation rivals Brighton and Watford, MOMS thought it was a good time to put those results into context by updating the ‘Relegation or Not’ chart, that plots the club’s potential end of season destiny.

Created by MOMS reader and patron Kristoffer Rasmussen, the chart tracks the progress made in terms of reaching the recognised spectrum of what is considered the Premier League points safety mark.

Based on Premier League history, in terms of survival, anything less than 36 points is a no-no – you’re relegated. Get above 42 points and you’re as good as safe in the Premier League, come the end of the season.

If a team is tracking to get a points tally in-between those two marks, then it’s in the laps of the football gods.

Villa have recently been hindered by a lack of striker options, although they will be grateful that new signing Ally Samatta will be available come their trip to Bournemouth.

So have Villa improved, since we last looked at the chart at the end of last year?

The Villa ‘Relegation or Not’ Meter

In the Lap of the Football Gods

Well, Villa are currently tracking at what is considered two points below the guaranteed safety mark (they were four points below it on December 30th). If they currently had 25 points, they would be on course to definitely beat relegation. However, their current tally would give them a projected chance.

As long as there’s no further key injuries – i.e. Mings or Grealish – then the introduction of Samatta, should only improve matters. Danny Drinkwater will also increasingly get up to speed in the coming weeks and there’s the potential reintroduction of John McGinn for the final month or so.

Results are obviously king though, but Villa have shown, especially with the Watford result, they have the spirit and fight to keep chipping away.

Villa, under Smith last season, certainly finished the season stronger than they started it, so hopefully they’ll do the same again.


Follow Kristoffer Rasmussen on Twitter here @kristoffer2610

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  1. Out of the remaining 15 games, I am confident we can get at least 5 wins. We are lucky in that, this season, there are many poor teams in and around us. It’s really about getting 5 clean sheets! We’ve a decent scoring record (9th in the league with 31 goals) but we’ve a league leading (or should I say league-leaking??) 45 goals conceded. Let’s hope Pepe keeps playing very well and getting us those 5 clean sheets… UTV.

  2. 24 of our 25 points have come against the other 8 teams in the bottom 9. We have only 4 more games left against those 8, all away. That’s the worry!

  3. We need to be ahead of the line by the end of February to have a chance, depending on what the current teams around us do!
    In hindsight we have been complacent in not having a proven striker from the start of the season as well as Wesley to carry out a real threat. ru

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