The Mathematics of the Relegation Battle Royale – the Key Games from Villa’s POV

relegations odds


In the next few days, the media will start describing the Premiership relegation battle as like nothing we’ve ever seen before in the history of the Premiership (their memories don’t stretch back much further). Potentially two or three points could separate eight teams on the last day of the season, setting up a real ‘Battle Royale’ with any one in a position to drop…including Aston Villa.

For Villa t0 survive mathematically 100%, it’s simple, they must get three points from their last couple of games.  To be honest, another point for Villa should see them safe, as it will be only take a miracle set of results to see them drop. We now know at least Sunderland or Southampton will be below Villa before the last game of the season kicks-off.

If all the worst case scenario results happened against Villa, which would include both Wigan and Newcastle beating Arsenal, Norwich beating Manchester City, and Spurs losing to both Stoke and Sunderland, Villa could get relegated even on 41 points.

In the same scenario of results, if instead Villa beat Wigan on the last day of the season, they could finish as high as 11th. Such is the closely-packed nature of the remaining teams involved in the fight for survival.

The Three Key Games That Villa’s Relegation Rivals Must Win

If Norwich don’t beat the West Brom next week, they’ll be very lucky to stay up, as their last game is away to Manchester City.

If Newcastle don’t win away to QPR, then the gun will be pointed at their head, with the safety-catch off. They play Arsenal (who’ll probably need a win) at home on the last day.

Wigan must beat Swansea on Tuesday to have a realistic chance of staying up, as their next two games – Arsenal (a) and Villa (h) – would be must win.

If Arsenal polish off Newcastle and Wigan on route to qualifying for the Champion’s League, and the above three games go Villa’s way, then the Villa players could potentially get the cigars out and not even turn up for the last two games.

Still, that’s not going to happen, as there’s a small matter of getting revenge against Chelsea for you know what. If Chelsea can beat Spurs at Stamford Bridge this week, then they’ll be ensured Champion’s League football next season, so they should rest up against Villa, with their Europa League final against Benfica four days later.

Lets take care of our own business and make sure other games are immaterial. UTV

Follow MOMS on Twitter here: @oldmansaid