Three things that matter heading into the City Ground first leg, as discussed on the latest My Old Man Said podcast.
1. Don’t Let the Recent Form Narrative Fool You
Forest beat Sunderland five-nil. Villa lost to Fulham. The narrative being constructed in some quarters is of a side whose confidence has collapsed meeting one in full flight. Hmmm, that requires closer inspection.
Forest’s recent improvement is real, they are third in the Premier League’s last six game form table, but it has to be contextualised. Before beating FC Porto to advance through the quarter-final, they had not won at the City Ground in seven consecutive games. The win that followed their Porto triumph, was against a struggling and relegated Burnley team.
Forest have won just four home league games all season from seventeen attempts. They lost at home to Fenerbahçe and Midtjylland in the Europa League too. This is not a side that is a solid proposition at the City Ground. If Villa get something there – a win, a draw, even a narrow defeat – when the tie comes back to Villa Park, the equation would shift entirely. PSG and Bayern Munich would testify to what Villa Park on a European night feels like. Forest will hopefully find out.
2. Emery Knows Exactly What He Is Doing
The concern in some parts of the fanbase is expected, but remember this is Unai Emery’s tournament. Four times a winner. Each of those campaigns involved navigating opponents who were perhaps expected to beat them. Villarreal beating Manchester United in a Europa League final was not an accident or a fluke. It was Emery knowing how to prepare a side for exactly this kind of high-stakes, single-elimination pressure.
Forest will not get the firefight they perhaps want. They will (hopefully) not get the naive high defensive line that Olympiacos exploited in Villa’s Conference League semi-final. What they will get is a controlled, disciplined, tactically prepared side that forces them to solve problems they may not have the answers to. The five-nil against Sunderland was impressive. Sunderland are not Emery’s Villa on a Europa League night.
On Tuesday night this week, PSG and Bayern produced one of the great Champions League nights in Paris. Last season, Villa beat them both. Villa’s ceiling, at its best, is higher than any side left in this competition. Their job is to reach that ceiling on the next two Thursday evenings.
Listen to more observations in the quick fire preview
3. Get Something at the City Ground and the Tie Is Villa’s to Win
The two-legged format suits Villa. Not because Villa Park is a fortress in some abstract sense, but because the history is specific and recent. Three consecutive European quarter-finals at Villa Park, three wins, these games should be embraced. The atmosphere when the occasion demands it is as good as any club ground in England.
Forest know this. Which is why they will almost certainly try to build a lead at the City Ground, which potentially means they will have to open up more against Villa. This should work in Villa’s favour in terms of being able to play through the lines.
The last 10 meetings between the two clubs have all produced at least two goals. The game at the City Ground maybe tighter, if there aren’t at least a couple of goals in the first leg, then whatever the result, Villa will fancy their chances at Villa Park.
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