What We Learnt from Manchester United 3 Aston Villa 1
The post-mortem on a 3-1 loss that raised questions far bigger than the result.
1. Paralysis by Analysis — The Structure Problem Has a Name Now
Emery has a word for it — structure. It used to be control. The word he repeats in press conferences and interviews has changed. The problem it describes hasn’t.
In the first half, Villa had a foothold in the game at Old Trafford without really threatening the goal. It took them over an hour to register their first shot on target, finishing the game with two. In their previous game, despite beating Lille, they only managed one shot on target.
Villa had 31 touches inside United’s box to their hosts’ 21, and yet two shots on target across ninety minutes, one of which was Barkley’s equaliser from close range. It tells you everything about the central contradiction running through this team. They are seeking control all the way into the final third, when what the final third demands is the opposite. Let go. Shoot. Be ruthless. That is what United did. That is why United won.
Again, it took the opposition to score to add some urgency into Villa’s play. The moment Casemiro scored, Villa suddenly found more of a cutting edge with Onana’s shot, then Barkley’s goal. But when that emotional overcorrection kicked in, Villa got sloppy in the final third and United picked them off on the counter. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of controlled aggression, it’s either handbrake or reckless football.
For a team managed by someone who talks constantly about structure, what’s the end game to it? To suffocate the opposition and hopefully take the one or two chances you create all game? At this moment in time, regardless of injuries, the repeated failure of the structure has become increasingly frustrating. Tweaks and changes in approach are needed.
2. Beyond Tammy Abraham v Ollie Watkins
At 1-1, with Villa piling forward and the momentum having shifted decisively, Tammy Abraham found himself with a great chance to put Villa two goals up at Old Trafford. He didn’t take it. Leon Bailey then gave the ball away cheaply in United’s half, Fernandes found Cunha in behind. 2-1 United. Game effectively over.
The Abraham miss was the hinge point of the match, but Abraham’s situation is central to a wider argument. Supporters have been calling for him to start for weeks. He won the supporters’ player of the month award for February, despite making one start all month. Emery has conspicuously ignored the message.
The question worth asking is whether Abraham was ever given a realistic chance to be ready for a moment like this. He made his debut on February 1st and has not started since. Rather than being used earlier in games where Villa were struggling to create anything — and there have been plenty of those — he has been deployed almost exclusively after the 70th minute, diminishing his window of opportunity. He was supposed to be a January reinforcement to help an ailing team.
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When the moment came at Old Trafford, the rusty forward lacking in game time couldn’t sort his feet out.
Surely Abraham isn’t already set to become a dysfunctional singing in the same vein as Evann Guessand, Donyell Malen, Harvey Elliott, Jadon Sancho et al.
The broader question of Watkins versus Abraham is not straightforward. What really are the expectations of both strikers within the current structure, if the chances aren’t actually coming their way. Watkins who has scored 8 league goals this season has an XG for 9.7, while Tammy Abraham with his single league goal has an XG of 1.2.
According to the stats, at least, this season there hasn’t been much more of an expectation from both players to score beyond the goals they have.
If you want further proof of Villa not creating enough chances in the league, Morgan Rogers’ 8 goals had an XG of 5.3, while Emi Buendia’s 5 goals come with an xG of 2.9. Basically, they’ve both scored some cracking goals from outside the box, when they ignored the shackles of the structure, and were more speculative in their intent.
So, the bottom line is this may not necessarily be a Watkins vs Abraham problem, but more of an issue with Villa’s overall tactical approach throughout the season, regardless of the results.
3. Villa Have No Fernandes. And That’s an Actual Problem.
He maybe Villa supporter’s favourite pantomime villain, but Bruno Fernandes has been directly involved in enough goals to be worth 23 points to Manchester United this season. A figure only three players have surpassed in the club’s entire Premier League history. On Sunday he delivered two assists, controlled the tempo and provided the decisive pass for the goal that ended the game as a contest. When United needed someone to take responsibility, Fernandes did.
Who does that for Villa?
Morgan Rogers carries the creative burden but is being crowded out by a system that moves too slowly for him to operate in. Emiliano Buendia offers moments but not consistency. McGinn provides the intangibles and fight, but rarely the goals. Youri Tielemans plays more of the role of the conductor in midfield, rather than the talented soloist.
Villa seem to lack one player capable of taking a game by the scruff of the neck and winning it on their own terms.
Again, it’s perhaps not a personnel problem, but a structural one. A system built around collective control actively suppresses the individual expression that match-winners require. The uncomfortable truth is that Villa need someone prepared to ignore the structure occasionally, pick up the ball and do something that isn’t on the whiteboard. Until that player exists or is allowed to exist, the team will continue to be entirely dependent on the system working. When it does, Villa can been formidable, but right now, something just isn’t clicking.
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