Aston Villa’s Same Old Story of 2024
Aston Villa’s 2-2 draw with Brighton at Villa Park should have been a satisfying comeback victory after fighting back from 1-0 down to take a 2-1 lead. Instead, it became a frustrating story of familiar failings, as Brighton clawed back a late equaliser to deny Villa all three points. Striker Ollie Watkins summed up the mood perfectly in his candid post-match assessment:
“Really disappointing,” reflected, the Villa striker. “We’ve been in that position quite a few times this season. Throughout the games, in the first half of the season, we’ve failed to finish the game, see the game out. So, [it’s] disappointing.”
Watkins’ words hit hard because they reflect an uncomfortable truth about Villa’s season: a team with ambitions of staying in the Champions League next season is faltering due to costly lapses, despite their rivals also stumbling.
Recurring Problems: Defensive Frailty and a Lack of Goals
Villa’s inability to see out games has been a season-long issue. Add the Brighton result to late-game frustrations against Ipswich, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest, and a clear trend emerges. Aston Villa have conceded 11 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches, the highest in the Premier League this season. This statistic highlights how their defensive drop-offs are undoing much of the team’s hard work earlier in games.
The drop-off of Villa’s forward players is equally as concerning. Despite their firepower, they average just 1.5 goals per game, ranking them 11th in the Premier League – below even Wolves, who sit near the relegation zone. The coaching staff has reportedly expressed concern about the inconsistency of their forward players, who have only shown flashes of their true potential this season.
Defensively, the problems are even more glaring and explain Villa’s negative goal difference of -4 over the calendar year of 2024. Villa concede an average of 1.6 goals per game, making them the 14th worst defence in the league. Away from home, that figure rises to over two goals per game, giving them little chance to secure wins on their travels.
Watkins also acknowledged the defensive issues, pointing out the psychological drop-off after Villa’s second goal against Brighton:
“When we scored [the second goal], we dropped back,” he said. “I’m not sure why that is, but obviously they grew into the game and caused a lot of problems.”
Watkins’ Struggles in Front of Goal
While Watkins remains Villa’s leading Premier League scorer this season with eight goals, his finishing has increasingly been a source of frustration. He currently leads the Premier League in ‘Big Chances Missed’ with 17, a damning statistic that highlights the thin margins costing Villa crucial points.
Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland register the next most big misses with 14 a piece, but that comes from 70 and 79 shots respectively, a lot more than Watkins’ tally of 50 shots. Salah has scored over twice as many goals as Watkins with 17, while Haaland is almost there with 14.
The Villa striker, at least, doesn’t shy away from taking responsibility:
“We weren’t clinical in the end [against Brighton], said Watkins. “We had a lot of attacks on the transition, but we weren’t clinical, myself included. We needed to do better in them situations, and that’s why we haven’t got three points.”
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2025 Change Needed
While Watkins needs to sharpen up in front of goal, Villa’s broader issues require systemic change by Unai Emery. Defensive fragilities, lapses in concentration, and unforced errors remain their undoing.
Though the club’s marketing team is spinning 2024 as a success, the numbers tell a different story. Villa’s foundation for Champions League football was built in 2023, when they won an impressive 62% of their matches with a +29 goal difference – only Manchester City bettered their record in the year. In 2024, however, they’ve won just 41% of games and possess a -4 goal difference. The swing is significant and raises questions about the team’s evolution.
While it’s fair to argue that Villa are no longer a surprise package and opponents are better prepared for them, the real issue lies in their own unforced errors. Emery’s task is clear: turn Villa’s undoubted potential into consistency and rediscover the formula that made them formidable in 2023, and nurture the progress of the likes of Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers.
With the second half of the season looming, Villa fans will hope the Brighton match serves as a final wake-up call. If they can convert more chances and tighten up defensively, there’s still time to salvage something meaningful from their league campaign, as they also look to have some memorable Champions League nights before the season’s end.
Key Takeaways:
- Villa’s 11 goals conceded in the final 15 minutes of matches are the most in the Premier League this season.
- Villa average 1.5 goals per game (11th in the league) and concede 1.6 goals per game (14th-worst defense).
- Watkins leads the league in ‘Big Chances Missed’ with 17, highlighting finishing inefficiencies.
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