The Good, Bad and Ugly Christmas Special
I’m a superstitious sort. While many people have filled the column inches with all things Villa, I’ve sat not wanting to disrupt the winning run. But only a third home win over the Beelzebubs from Old Trafford since 1995 means it’s time to get back to it.
The Good
Drink it in, hook it to your veins and hang it in the Louvre. Whatever the trendy phrase is at the moment, it definitely applies to Aston Villa.
Winning ten consecutive games in all competitions, seven in the Premier League, is the good stuff, and it’s all testament to mentality and grit.
While Aston Villa have gone on similar streaks, this one started from the pits of despair. Winning the game against United showed just how far Aston Villa’s baseline performance has risen.
Under Unai Emery, Aston Villa no longer need to play their ‘A’ game to get wins.
Leeds, West Ham, Manchester United. Three teams Villa have struggled against in the recent past, all dispatched by Villa raising their game in the big moments.
Instead of blockbuster 90-minute performances like Villa used to need to win a game, Villa can struggle and still turn it on when it matters and get the job done.
It might lead to unfair criticism from top-six entrenched media, but it’s what good teams do, it’s what title-winning teams have always done.
Villa may not win a title, but the ability to win without having to play above their levels every week means they have that extra room to grow when needed.
Two seasons ago, Villa peaked after beating Manchester City and Arsenal in a week, failing to reach the same levels again. Now, they’ve already turned both over and still have gas in the tank.
Villain of the Week – Morgan Rogers
Finally, Villa have another goal to show in highlight reels other than Jack Grealish’s wonder strike at Old Trafford.
Morgan Rogers’ first was even better than Grealish’s 2019 effort. While helped by some casual United tracking, he still had to control the ball, keep it in play, and advance on the box. When it left his foot, there was only one place it was headed.
The player who was stinking out the side in the first few games of the season hasn’t only got his mojo back; he’s living up to the hype.
The Bad
Ollie Watkins has had a difficult season so far. While Villa’s all-time Premier League record scorer has always missed the odd sitter, this season is very different.
Watkins was always known as the one-man press. The hardest-working forward in the league who stretched teams into the corners and created as many goals for his teammates as he scored for himself.
Last season, he topped the big chances missed table despite taking a much lower proportion of shots than his peers, and it was a major factor in Villa’s ultimate failure to repeat Champions League qualification.
This season, with a full preseason under his belt and no international tournament, Watkins was expected to be back to his best.
If anything, he is worse.
Watkins just doesn’t look like the same player. Press release rumours of a long-standing knee injury would be an explanation, but then why is he being played into the ground by Villa? He was injured going into last season too, so why not focus on bringing in another striker?
Brief flashes of the old Watkins appeared away to Brighton, where he scored a brace, but these moments have been the exception to the norm.
Watkins still has the support of the crowd and a vital role to play, as his instinctive assist for Morgan Rogers’ second against Manchester United showed. Still, he is becoming the weak link in the Villa side, and when you are at the sharp end of the league, you can’t afford any breaks in the chain.
In January, Villa will surely be considering rotation or support options so Watkins can get back to being the player the team needs.
If Give Our Xmas EP a Spin
The Ugly
The recent Aston Villa versus XG debate is a tiresome example of all that’s wrong with media coverage of the Premier League.
The promotion of XG from the computers of club scouts who are trained to interpret it and use it to the pundits of the football broadcasters who can barely interpret their own lunch menus has ruined football discourse.
XG or expected goals, like VAR, is now here to stay, but neither has completely benefitted the game.
Its intended use is scouting, to show how much a player excels from his expected performance.
If you are looking at Morgan Rogers, for example, he has scored seven goals from an expected goal figure of 2.86. The only player outperforming his expected by that much is Harry Kane, who is 5.97 above expectations.
If you are scouting a player who consistently does this, then you are looking at an elite talent who has the X-factor, for want of a better word.
The same should be said of a team that consistently does this.
Aston Villa are consistently outperforming expectations, which used to be what elite teams did, it used to be what was needed to succeed; instead, anyone with a camera and a shouty voice is now telling the world that exceeding expectations is a bad thing in elite sport.
Back in your box, Michael Jordan; Roger Federer and Rory McIlroy, don’t you dare win a Grand Slam.
The worst thing about it is that the XG abusers cannot lose. Because sport is unpredictable by nature, Aston Villa will eventually lose a game. Then they will come like the rising tide, a sea of people who have reduced the magic of sport to spreadsheets, all to say ‘I told you so’ as if they were betting on the sun rising every morning.
Just let people enjoy football, whether it’s good, bad, or ugly.
UTV
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