Five Reasons to be Cheerful as a Villans Despite Slump
Aston Villa’s form may have dropped off a cliff in recent weeks, at a key juncture of the season, but surely Unai Emery will have an answer? Won’t he? It can’t be all up to a returning John McGinn? The latest five reasons to be cheerful as Villans…
1. Still Fourth — Despite Everything
If you thought Villa’s opening five winless league games were bad, when they managed just one goal, their most recent 10 league games have produced relegation-level form — only Burnley and Spurs have fared worse across the same period, with Villa picking up nine points from a possible 30.
What makes that statistic simultaneously alarming and oddly reassuring is what sits between those two poor spells. In a 15-game period that bookended both slumps, Villa had the best record in the entire Premier League — 12 wins, one draw, two defeats — leaving them a point better off than Arsenal across the same stretch. The quality is in there somewhere. The switch just needs flipping.
Despite these extreme form swings, Villa are still fourth. It’s a results business, and that is the only number that matters right now.
2. Liverpool and Chelsea’s Dodgy Home Form
Both Liverpool and Chelsea have won two, drawn three and lost one of their last six home games — nine points from an available 18. That stuttering home form has been the primary reason neither side has capitalised on Villa’s recent slump. In relative terms, the defending champions and the big-spending centre-circle huddling side have been as unconvincing as Villa.
There is further cause for optimism for Villa in the fixture list. Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United all face each other in the final weeks of the season, meaning points will be dropped amongst the closest rivals regardless of what Villa do. And Liverpool still have to come to Villa Park, where Emery will be hoping to record his first win against them as Villa manager.
3. The Europa League Catalyst
A win in the first leg away from home is always a significant result, however it arrives. Despite managing just one shot on target in Lille, Villa found a way to win and demonstrated there is still a pulse in this team.
Progress into the Europa League quarter-finals at Villa Park this week would prove this side hasn’t gone into asystole just yet. Get through Lille, beat West Ham at home, and optimism will return to the Villa ranks with a speed that would surprise even the most doom riddled supporter. The Europa effect proved that once before this season, after Villa’s win against Bologna trigger a sharp upturn in the league. It could happen again.
4. Tielemans Cavalry
After the international break, Youri Tielemans should be available again. Like McGinn, who managed an hour at Old Trafford on his return, he will need managing back carefully and a few games to find his rhythm. But the numbers don’t lie. Villa average 2.3 points per game when McGinn, Tielemans and Kamara all start. They average 0.8 when none of them do. The cavalry is not fully assembled, but you’d take 2/3 of 2.3 points at this stage.
Villa’s recent problems are not exclusively down to missing their midfield trio — other fixes are needed too — but having Tielemans back after the international break is a genuine boost at exactly the right moment.
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5. The International Break Could Not Have Come at a Better Time
Last weekend’s home results from Liverpool and Chelsea give Emery’s Villa a window of opportunity. Beat West Ham at Villa Park and head into the international break still in the top four with momentum restored. Avoid defeat and they’ll go into the break in the top five with their destiny still in their own hands and seven games to play.
The break itself is the gift. Time to reset. Time to work on what has clearly gone wrong tactically. Time for players to return from injury and rebuild fitness. Sometimes a fortnight away from the Premier League is exactly what a stuttering side needs. Villa have been here before this season and came back transformed. There is no reason it cannot happen again.
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