So where do Villa create their chances this season, versus last season?
| 2013/14 | 2012/13 | |
| Left flank | 28% | 37% |
| Centre | 37% | 29% |
| Right flank | 35% | 34% |
This is a considerable shift in where we create chances compared with last season – most chances are created through the centre this season, whereas last season we created fewest chances through the middle.
This is somewhat surprising given how last season, Benteke was the focal point of our play through the centre. However, possible reasons for this could be that this season, we have played two players centrally up top more often. Secondly, Delph has been much more creative and threatening through the centre. Moreover, Weimann was a lot more creative last season to the right of Benteke – this season, he has gone off the boil considerably.
Finally, and most importantly, Agbonlahor has been more central this season (with less drifting out wide), compared with a more left-hand side role last season (there’s heat maps to prove this, but just take our word!). We can see from the table that despite creating the most chances on the left last season, we now create the fewest on the left this season.
Therefore, we do seem to be creating much more centrally compared with last season, despite never signing that elusive creative attacking central player.
On The Defensive
Last season, we managed five clean sheets. This season, we have already got seven. With six of these clean sheets occurring whilst playing four at the back, it appears as if we are more solid with just two centre-backs.
As mentioned earlier however, five at the back is preferred in the more difficult fixtures – Lambert has a plan vs. the harder teams but doesn’t appear to have a set preference for home games. Lambert is happy to counter with a 5-3-2 formation away from home, although it is hard to say how many we would have conceded had we played four at the back in these tougher games. What we can say, however, is Villa have defended better this season. The following tables highlight the main differences this season with last season.
2013/14
| Home | Away | Overall | |
| Defensive Errors (leading to goals) | 6(5)* | 5(3)* | 11 (8)* |
| ‘Big chances’ conceded | 16 (6th)* | 23 (11th)* | 39 (8th)* |
2012/13
| Home | Away | Overall | |
| Defensive Errors (leading to goals) | 10(5) | 19(4) | 29(9) |
| ‘Big chances’ conceded | 36 (16th) | 40 (11th) | 76 (14th) |
This season, Villa’s errors have been punished. By contrast, Liverpool have also conceded 8 goals this season from defensive mistakes, but have made 33 defensive errors compared with Villa’s 11! Villa have been making fewer errors this season, although opposition have certainly capitalized on any mistakes we’ve made this year. As well as fewer errors, Villa are doing relatively better compared with the rest of the Premier League in terms of ‘big chances’ created, especially at home. However, 22 goals conceded in 14 games (the third worst total) shows that the opposition are again making the most of their chances against us.
So where are Villa conceded their chances from, compared with last season? Here are the percentages of where we are conceding chances:
| 2013/14 | 2012/13 | |
| Left flank | 37% | 35% |
| Centre | 26% | 33% |
| Right flank | 37% | 32% |
As we can see, Villa are conceded more chances on the wings this season. This could be for a few reasons. Firstly, we pack the middle of the pitch against better teams, and would thus expect to concede more chances out wide.
Secondly, Vlaar has improved considerably this season. For instance, Vlaar has won 73% of tackles vs. 66% last season. Finally, for me, Lowton is a more assured defender than Bacuna, so I would not be surprised if teams targeted the right-back position more when Bacuna is playing there compared to Lowton (who played all 38 games last season).
Brief Summation
Overall, we seem to have gone backwards in terms of ball retention (particularly in important areas of the pitch), but defensively we are making fewer mistakes and generally conceding fewer chances. We are also a lot stronger centrally – we are creating 37% of our chances through the middle and yet only conceding 26% of our chances – Delph and Vlaar really are important players for Villa, although Agbonlahor’s shift to a more central role more often certainly plays a factor here too.
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I think we have improved, although there is still a lot of work to do. Similarly to Arsenal, we have a strong core, and just need 2 or 3 magnificent players to take us to the next level.
We dont have to overhaul the squad, nor fire the manager.
I agree, the right two or three players, a decent DM & a AM, could really transform the team. Villa need to be a little bit more bolder in the transfer market to get them.
So are we better or worse? Where is your conclusion? The reason Bacuna is playing right back is because Lowton has been awful this season, was have looked far more secure on the right with Bacuna than with Lowton. Another reason for the issue on the flanks is that we have been primarily playing a 4-4-2 diamond as opposed to a 4-5-1 so the flanks haven’t been protected as much.
Our mistakes have been more costly because those mistakes are happening closer to goal as we have been inviting teams onto us a lot more so as create more space for the counter attacks. Tactically we are much better than last season, the fact we are seven points better off after the same amount of games compared to last season as well as having conceded 15 fewer goals and having scored 5 more goals! The only area we were better last season was possession. Stylistically we were better last season as we were so open, but in terms of tactics, defending, scoring and results compared to the same stage last season we have improved! We need 10 goals and 11 points from 10 games to beat our points and goals totals of last season and need to avoid conceding 31 goals to match last season goals conceded tally, so to me the OBVIOUS answer is YES WE HAVE IMPROVED!
Me personally (I didn’t write the article), if we had brought the elusive attacking midfielder or experience head/talent in midfield, we would have improved without any doubt. You would have hoped Villa would have been around at least the 50 pt mark this season. It wasn’t that much to ask for.
Hi there 🙂
This article came before the Norwich game, and I think that first half sums our season up in terms of just not having a clue as what to expect when we play. It is strange that often our play is predictable, yet we’re capable of getting these fantastic results at unexpected times.
What I wanted to get across was that we’re creating more, albeit in different areas of the pitch, but having less of the ball has been quite frustrating from the fan’s point of view, especially at home. Tactically we’re better away, but at home I feel we’ve gone downhill slightly, which is a shame as expectations were increased so much from the last 10 games from last season.
In all honesty I couldn’t say who I favoured at RB – it’s swung a few times between Bacuna and Lowton for me. I wouldn’t say that Lowton had a lot of support last season down the right – it was only really Weimann offering him any protection there last year. I like your point about the diamond though.
I also wanted to get across (which I only really mentioned at the start) is that we have been better off in terms of points AND in terms of who we play at virtually all times this season – yet the performances have been far below far (which is what fans seem to have focused upon). You have to remember though that we’ve played 28 games this season – from that point last season we won 5 of the remaining games, so it’s not too much of a surprise that we’ve surpassed that total from last season. It would be nice to finish the season as we did, and go into the summer break with as much positivity as we did last season.