Why Nobody Linking Morgan Rogers to a Move Has Done the Maths

Those Morgan Rogers Transfer Links

Are you bored of the Morgan Rogers transfer rumours yet?

How many times have we seen this situation before?

Over the years, the press have seemingly tried to will away from Villa the likes of James Milner, Gareth Barry, Christian Benteke and Jack Grealish, only for each of these players to stay on at least a season after the media’s initial hard sell on the respective players.

The last such case was Jack Grealish, a good 18 months before his release clause of £100m was finally triggered by Manchester City, the media were adamant that he was moving to Manchester United. MOMS certainly wasn’t convinced at the time despite headlines of agreed terms and buying houses in the North West. 

Despite Villa being a different beast of a club now – lifting trophies, playing in the Champions League and locking horns with PSG in the upcoming Super Cup – the media and fans of Sky Six clubs haven’t quite cottoned on yet.

Rogers’ situation is the narrative of any good player outside the Sky Six, his name will also be used to sow the seeds for clickbait farms to take advantage of the big international fanbase clubs. Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea have all been linked to Rogers. Even PSG and Bayern have been thrown into the mix.

Engagement Over Facts

Some of the discourse has been farcical.

Sports journalist Ben Jacobs – who claims in his portfolio to have ‘strong editorial judgement’ – stated on The United Stand that Manchester City held a buy-back clause for Rogers.

“Man City have got a buyback clause there; they have held a conversation about potentially triggering that but nothing is advancing yet,” he stated.

Really?

The reality is City shipped out Rogers to Middlesbrough for a reported fee of around £1.5m, without him ever making a senior appearance for the club. At the time, it was reported they had a 25% sell-on clause.

So when Middlesbrough went on to sell Rogers for £8m, plus an add-on package of up to £7m, City would have taken their cut and ended their interest there, especially when it’s also reported that Middlesbrough then had their own 20% sell-on fee — more on that later.

Naturally, the clickbait farm outlets such as Football365 recycle it as news, preferring ad revenue over editorial judgement.

The way Arsenal’s supposed interest has been reported, it’s as if they are at the pick and mix counter, and they can take any player they want. Villa’s point of view in the situation is barely considered. The disrespect is palpable.

First of all, let’s clear up one thing – this is not a pressing concern, so people can relax at the moment.

The season has just finished. The industry as a whole gets their holidays in as soon as the final whistle is blown to close the season. Actual transfer activity at this point tends to be limited, unless a move has been lined up so far in advance that the player has even had time to learn the language of the country he’s moving to before the deal is completed — see Anthony Gordon.

Then, of course, there’s the small matter of the World Cup. Rogers is currently in England’s camp and nothing meaningful is going to happen before or during the tournament. So people can at least ignore the stories, until after the tournament finishes.

Rogers and Villa

Rogers’ current situation is also not one that screams escape hatch. He signed a new long-term contract — keeping him at Villa until June 2031 — just months ago. He has started winning silverware and broken into the England setup. He will be playing in the Champions League again under one of the best managers in the world. 

Time is also on his side, he’s only 23 years old. Grealish finally didn’t move until he was a month shy of his 26th birthday, and he was in a lesser version of Villa without Unai Emery as his mentor. 

Most importantly at the moment, Villa want him to stay.

Villa’s Defining Context

The elephant in the room, though, is a combination of both UEFA’s Squad Cost Rules (SCR) and the fact Villa’s squad is one of the oldest in the Premier League. After several unimpressive windows in the transfer market, Villa will need to begin rebuilding meaningfully to continue their progress under Emery. He is still very much playing with a second-hand team. Also, Villa must strengthen in the here and now to be competitive in the Champions League.

Financial restrictions mean making wholesale changes is difficult, but then again, look how such seismic change worked out for the big-spending and underperforming Liverpool and Chelsea last season. 

Villa made meaningful money from last season’s achievements and if they can wrap up a fair value front of shirt sponsor before the season begins, there’s not much more they could do financially in the face of the scrutiny they are under from UEFA. 

Hypothetically speaking, if Villa were in need of substantial wiggle room to create a platform for a rebuild, then Rogers would potentially be the best bet, but for Villa to even consider a sale, they would need to receive an offer they couldn’t refuse.

And there is a stumbling block to that.

The Real Pivotal Clause

Middlesbrough are reported to hold a 20 per cent sell-on clause from the original deal. That single detail changes the Rogers conversation considerably. The often-mooted figure of £80m suddenly becomes £64m after the Boro tax, which surely would be of little interest to Villa. They would essentially be selling a prized possession for less than the £70m Newcastle received for Anthony Gordon. That is surely not going to happen.

For Villa to actually bank £80m, they need to sell Rogers for £100m, but would other clubs still be tempted at that price? 

Before Villa’s late flourish of results that banked the Europa League and secured Champions League qualification, Rogers was largely out of sorts in the early part of this year. He had — if we’re being honest — a 7/10 season. 

The World Cup is always a great amplifier of hype and transfer fees, but Rogers would need an outstanding tournament to spark the kind of bidding war that would push his price into the £100m territory, where the maths might make sense and serve Villa’s interests.

Villa’s owners are not mugs. They will only sell Rogers if Villa are getting a really good deal and it syncs in with their plans. As they’ve already shown, they’d rather soak up a UEFA fine than dampen Emery’s ambition.

The press will continue to farm engagement until they realise as much, while Ben Jacobs’ strong editorial judgement will, no doubt, be following developments closely.

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